Somewhat Manly Nerd

I have no goddamn clue what causes those random 500 errors. The server is always working, as evidenced by my gifs and pics working and also being able to connect to the server through FTP; yet somehow WordPress is randomly fucking up. It’s not even after a new blog post or after installing a plugin or after updating WordPress — it’s just totally goddamn random. Is it Dreamhost’s fault? Have I bogged down the server somehow with all the Seinfeld gifs? Did the smiley folder I created push it over the edge? I really should figure this shit out sometime soon because it probably annoys me more than anyone else since I no doubt check my blog more than anyone else. It’s not like when GAF is down and 3000 nerds are raging because Evilore can’t shell out for more masking tape to hold his two Compaq servers together.

Woah, the first Real Talk of the new year, better make this good.

- Welp, sorry I didn’t make a WEEKEND LINKS post this weekend. Only one weekend in and I’m already too goddamn lazy to make a post where I pimp other websites and blogs. I suck.

- I actually enjoyed Avatar but now I fucking hate it because it’s winning awards and breaking every goddamn record that seems to be in existence. I am a typical internet backlasher, but I don’t care. Fuck Avatar. TWO BILLION DOLLARS ARE YOU KIDDING ME

- I’m so spoiled by Blu-ray that I couldn’t even bring myself to watch the episodes of Sons of Anarchy on my hard drive for more than 15 minutes. A widescreen show recorded from a standard-resolution broadcast blown up to full screen = unwatchable. Basically the equivalent of listening to 64kbps mp3s on iPod earbuds.

- I just figured out how to block Farmville updates on Facebook. This has made my night.

- I bet this blog would actually be more popular (or at least interesting) if I were more personal. And by personal, I mean posting nude pics. Oh yeah.

- But really, I hang onto regrets an unhealthy amount of time, so I’m pretty sure my latest will last a lifetime.

- Selling shit is kinda addictive. Or maybe getting rid of shit is somewhat liberating. A little bit of both? Who wants a TV on DVD variety box?!?

- I love dogs, but I’d probably own a cat before I owned a dog that sheds.

- Sometimes I fantasize about having a psychotic meltdown and breaking every piece of electronics (and other stuff too) in my room, ending up with me lying, bleeding, in the middle of the room with broken glass and shattered plastic strewn all around me. That’d make a good scene for an indie film pre-packaged for Sundance Film Festival. I’m not sure which indie band could be played over the scene, though.

- I recently subscribed to The Economist, but I think I’m going to end up canceling it — not because it sucks, but because there’s just too much information. By the time I get around to finishing a few articles in one issue, the next one comes. I overwhelm myself enough with stupidity; I don’t need to be overwhelmed by periodicals.

- The NFL is rigged and Roger Goodell loves Mark Sanchez (like every female on Earth). Only way to explain how the Jets are in the AFC Championship Game. I still can’t believe it.

I can’t even be bothered to spell out the entire saga of Carlos Beltran’s surgery that may or may not have been run by or approved by Omar Minaya or someone else in the Mets’ front office or medical staff or who gives a flying fuck. The only thing that matters is that yet another injury has been mishandled in a way that massively affects the Mets on the field. There doesn’t seem to an expected date for Beltran’s return, but estimates put it at May? June? July? I seriously do not care enough in January to make sense of all the conflicting rumors and reports and interviews transcripts I’ve read the past few days.

Why do I care at all? I already knew the Mets weren’t going anywhere this year. Oh, you signed Jason Bay? Congrats, you made up for the black fucking hole in right field. At least the pitching market seems totally stagnant. Maybe the Mets won’t have to give Joel Pineiro more than 2/15. We’ll see.

But still, I can’t remember what I write on this blog or in IM or on forums, so I’ll just say it’s amazing how far this organization has fallen since 2006. Holy shit. Even after that devastating Game 7, there were at least five reasons to be excited about the next few years. And look what the fuck has happened. Jose Reyes never reached that imaginary MVP potential so many people were hoping and now he may have permanently lost a step. Beltran, who the fuck knows. David Wright had a power outage of historical proportions. Oliver Perez is a headcase. John Maine can’t stay healthy. Sigh.

This is where I just link to Gawker.tv again.

Jay Leno was embarrassed by Jimmy Kimmel on his OWN SHOW tonight. It was glorious. Check it out.

But yeah, seems next week will be Conan’s last week hosting The Tonight Show, if NBC doesn’t decide to cut it off even sooner. I doubt that will happen though, seeing as the ratings have gone up immensely this week. It’s just fucking bullshit.

Oh hey, right as I was about to publish this post, someone uploads the ownage of the night on YouTube so I can embed it.

Edit: New video, since the other one seemed to be shitting up.

So amazing.

I just got done watching the best late-night television in years. David Letterman ripped Jay Leno, NBC, and Carson Daly. Conan O’Brien just didn’t give a crap, going straight after Leno and NBC. But then Jimmy Kimmel came on and outdid everyone by doing the entire show as Jay Leno. It was incredible up until Elisha Cuthbert came on as a guest and, though she looked hot, was a godawful interview who didn’t know how to handle what Kimmel was doing. Craig Ferguson also jumped in and called out NBC  liars. It was pretty awesome all around, especially since multiple hosts made fun of Carson Daly as well.

I’ll just link to this post on Gawker.tv, since they have EVERYTHING covered. But so there’s actually something in this post, I’ll embed two YouTube videos of Kimmel doing Leno; between Kimmel’s ridiculous impersonation, the band, and the Kevin Eubanks stand-in, this is television perfection.

I HIGHLY recommend clicking on the link and watching the Letterman and Conan clips, though.

If you’re a baseball fan, you might have heard that Andre Dawson will be the Baseball Hall of Fame’s sole inductee this year. I really don’t have a major issue with Dawson being inducted; I just have a problem with Dawson being inducted while 7 or 8 more deserving candidates have to wait at least another year.

I’ll try not to go into the usual stuff that has been covered on a ton of other blogs. I wish I saved the links, because I’m not going to hunt for them.

My initial gut ballot was: Bert Blyleven, Roberto Alomar, Mark McGwire, Tim Raines. Since then, I’ve reconsidered and would probably add Edgar Martinez, Barry Larkin, and Alan Trammell. So there, seven guys I’d put in before Dawson.

But I’m going to steal and add to an idea presented in this post on The Hardball Times.

Wins Above Excellence:

Time to introduce a new junk stat. For this measure, I’m looking at how many wins a player has above three in a season, though his season total can never be below zero. This gives a player credit for great seasons, and ignores anything where a player is average or below, it neither adds nor hurts a player’s case for greatness. A great player should not be penalized if he hangs around past his peak contributing a only little bit to his teams.

I think three wins is a bit low of a barrier for “excellence.” Two wins is average, three wins is good, four wins is great, five wins is excellence.

Going by Fangraphs’ WAR calculations (which I won’t be using for the historical WAR calculations), last year there were this many players — not including pitchers — that hit each of these WAR thresholds:

3 WAR or above: 75
4 WAR or above: 47
5 WAR or above: 24

I’d definitely define five wins above replacement as excellence. The guys right at the threshold are names like Teixeira, Ichiro, and Sandoval.

But, not many guys collect many wins above 5 WAR. Let’s look at the numbers for the eight Hall of Fame candidates (including the one future inductee):

Oh wait, make that nine. You may have noticed the guy that doesn’t belong. At all. That would be Jack Morris. This is the voting results from this year with Lee Smith taken out, because there’s no point in even adding him to the chart. As you can see, Dawson does not deserve to be on top — and Bert Blyleven should be a no-fucking-brainer. I think  another interesting part of the table is Raines being the second-worst when you use 5 WAR as the barrier (and third-worst with the other two). That ties in well with why he’s been slow in getting support for induction. Trammell was just unfortunate to play shortstop just before the recent influx of heavy-hitting shortstops. His hitting numbers don’t look impressive, and he wasn’t Ozzie Smith in the field. Hall of Fame voters don’t apply position adjustments, apparently.

As always, I must thank Sean Smith at BaseballProjection.com for his historical WAR database. I should probably donate at this point.

If it didn’t already look like one.

This video is ALL CG. That means it is all fake. That means it is all generated by computers. Holy fuck. I think this Alex Roman guy might have a future in the special effects business.

I’m embedding it, but you really need to go to Vimeo to watch it in HD.

It’s a new year and I figured maybe I should start a new semi-regular post. Basically, 3:10 to Joba has forced me to start linking to him because he won’t stop linking to me. I can’t let that go on any longer without reciprocation.

The Red Sox Continue To Do Things Right – 3:10 explains why Theo Epstein is smart and why Omar Minaya isn’t. Well, I added the second part.

Everything you always wanted to know about: UZR – A primer on the preeminent sabermetric fielding statistic at the moment. I’ve even seen it mentioned in Newsday!

Whoa, Easy On The Crazy, ‘Lost’ Fans – This is old now, since it’s been announced that Obama’s speech won’t conflict with the schedule 3-HOUR LIFE-CHANGING EVENT that is the Lost Season 6 premiere, but seeing the reactions is still hilarious.

Avatar: #2 of All Time in 20 Days – I don’t get it. Or maybe I do, since I paid for it.

What Should I Drink? Soda Pop Edition – First off, it’s not fucking pop. Secondly, I can’t even tell what the Mexican drink is at the very top. Either way, it’s still a cool chart, but I’m linking for all the other flowcharts also listed there. It’s scarily spot-on with me on some of them.

I think that’s enough for a first time around. I didn’t even prepare for this! I’ll actually save links for next week’s edition — if there’s an edition next week. You never know, I might be too tied up doing nothing.

Note: I really, really want to steal 3:10′s idea (oh wait, that’s the entire sports blogosphere idea) about combining the links with a hot chick — and have a slight twist on it. But I don’t think the chick would be happy. Nope, probably not.

The only point of watching this movie is experiencing it in theaters. If you have any interest whatsoever, just go see it in 3D. Sure, it’ll set you back at least 15 bucks, but unless you want to wait until you have a 60″ 3D HDTV in your house, you’re not going to get nearly the same amount of enjoyment otherwise. Of course, you may have absolutely no interest in watching 9-feet-tall anorexic smurfs running around a super-evolved rainforest — in which case I’ll try halfheartedly to convince you to give your money to James Cameron.

…this is how I started to write this post over a week ago. I saw Avatar two Sundays ago and I thought it was an entertaining spectacle, even if it’s basically Pocahontas/Ferngully/Dances with Wolves in space. But now I’m already annoyed with it.

I stand by the assessment that if you’re interested at all, you should go see the movie in a 3D theater, but I’m not going to try to convince anyone now. Apparently, enough people have been already convinced since it’s made well over a BILLION DOLLARS. At the very least, it will end up as the second-highest grossing movie of all-time, and it also has a chance at toppling Titanic‘s worldwide record of $1.8 billion. These are James Cameron’s last two movies. I wonder exactly when he sold his soul to be able to make whatever the hell he wants and still bring in an obscene amount of money.

But I have to hand it to Cameron — he knows how to direct. That’s more than I can say for the blockbuster director that has attempted to take his place for the past decade. I think we all know to whom I refer. Cameron has come back and shown everyone how it’s done. He somehow took a movie that features funny-looking blue people and turned into the biggest hit of the decade. He has truly pushed the boundaries of filming technology and special effects once again, and you can actually decipher what is going on in the action scenes! And they are massive action scenes.

In terms of the 3D usage, it has to be the least intrusive I’ve ever seen, but there’s still some of that blurring and awkward focusing at times — it’s not perfect. I heard that in RealD (the theater type I saw it in), the 3D doesn’t pop out as much as in IMAX. I think that’s probably a good thing. You don’t feel engulfed in the world, but it adds some nice perspective to massive shots, particularly the flying scenes, which were probably when I was most impressed with the movie.

But overall, the movie is just so totally transparent and predictable that I couldn’t help but be bored a lot of the time. I wasn’t enthralled with the world Cameron had created, and neither did I really care all that much about the indigenous Nav’i tribe. I actually loved the Colonel who wanted nothing more but to destroy everything related to the Nav’i; the dude was a total badass. It’s a bad sign when the best character in a movie is a caricature.

No matter what I think, Avatar is already going down as one of the biggest movie events of all-time, and it even seems like a candidate for the Oscar for Best Picture. That is the most shocking development of all — I don’t even think as highly of The Dark Knight as many people I’ve come across, but it deserved a nod much more than Avatar. But hey, most critics seem to disagree with me. I’m just shocked 50-year-old men are more impressed with a pretty 3D film with no substance than me.

The Red Sox just signed Beltre to a 1-year, $9 million contract with a $5 million player option and $1 million buyout. Basically 1/10 or 2/14. Some people might look at last year and say he’s not worth it, or that it’s a merely a push — but I think the Red Sox just made another great signing. His value doesn’t come from his usually slightly-above average bat, but his insane glove.

The dude could be a shortstop. He’d be a better shortstop than Derek Jeter, that’s for sure. I want one of these compilation videos for Scott Rolen. Get on it, internet.