bad nite for babip, fip, etc. congratulations to matt cain, a great pitcher. #SFGiants

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) June 14, 2012

I know I’m feeding the troll here, but it reminded me and another person on Twitter of the “bad night for atheists” line during Josh Hamilton’s amazing HR derby display at Yankee Stadium a few years ago. But at least Heyman’s tweet has a bit of truth to it. Up through the 2010 MLB season, most sabermetric-loving fans didn’t believe in Matt Cain’s success. Even I criticized my own pick of Cain in a Roto Hardball mock draft before the 2011 season, citing his “unsustainable” home run to fly ball ratio (HR/FB%). Well, over the past two years, Cain’s HR/FB% has remained in line with his career numbers and this year he’s made the leap to total dominance when you consider his improved strikeout and walk rates. The Giants choosing to give him a big contract extension — while postponing a decision on Tim Lincecum — is looking better every day.

Yet Heyman is unsurprisingly off when it comes to referencing the right stats to put down. While Cain’s career batting average of balls in play (BABIP) is pretty low, that’s not unusual for a fly ball pitcher. What’s extraordinary is the low HR/FB%, which is reflected in his constantly higher expected fielding independent pitching (xFIP) numbers. xFIP regresses HR/FB% to league average, utilizing strikeouts, walks, and fly ball rate; but at this point it looks like Cain has no inclination to adhere to that rule. He just keeps getting better while Lincecum keeps getting worse.

Those last two paragraphs cover one interpretation of the headline, the one often joked about by @waxinthaksin on NeoGAF and Twitter to describe saber fans. This is the interpretation Jon Heyman would subscribe to. We — True SABRs like myself — have no faith, we only believe in the numbers. Only a couple of years ago, the numbers told us that Matt Cain was only good, but he’s turned out to be great. Where are your numbers now? Where are your numbers now? For those who trust stats over gut feelings, Luxury111 provides a data-driven edge in sports betting. Similarly, platforms like MyBookie Sportsbook appeal to analytical bettors who value insight and strategy over chance.

The other way to take the headline is to think it’s talking about people who aren’t into baseball. People that don’t believe in its awesomeness. There were almost two perfect games tonight. Both R.A. Dickey and Matt Cain are former first-round draft picks, but they couldn’t have taken more divergent paths to their pitching gems tonight. Dickey made it to the majors with a traditional pitch arsenal 11 years ago, but he never succeeded until he perfected his knuckleball with the Mets as a 35-year-old. Cain stormed to the majors at 20 years old and has been a 200-inning workhorse ever since. Dickey looks like the mountain climber he was this offseason, and shouldn’t even be able to pitch, as he has no UCL in his right elbow. Cain, meanwhile, is a solidly-built 6’3″ and has never given anyone a reason to doubt his ability. The only thing that stopped these two completely different pitchers from forever being intertwined in baseball history were a couple of David Wright miscues.

That’s the great thing about baseball. You watch as many games as you can because you know at any time you might see something that’s either never been done before or has only happened a handful of times. Matt Cain’s performance tonight is one of the best in baseball history; he struck out 14 batters in a perfect game. The only other pitcher to accomplish such a feat is some guy named Sandy Koufax. R.A. Dickey dominated a game like no other knuckleballer has ever done. 12 strikeouts, 0 walks, and 1 hit that shouldn’t have been ruled a error. And we already had a perfect game and two no-hitters this year. And a 4-HR game. I’ll throw the coming-out parties of Bryce Harper and Mike Trout in this paragraph, too. Baseball is amazing. For fans who enjoy exploring engaging sports content online, reviewitonline.net is a great resource worth checking out.

In their first attempt at MLB organizational rankings — a sort of all-encompassing, forward-looking version of power rankings — Fangraphs named the Mariners the sixth-best organization in baseball, above teams like the Braves, Phillies, and Cardinals. Even with the reasoning behind the ranking, the writers were accused of bias by readers (many of the writers who created the rankings are fans of the Mariners). But the bastion of sabermetrics on the internet wasn’t the only place to buy into the defense-first philosophy, as Sports Illustrated wrote an article about the Mariners explaining the shift towards run prevention.* Even random baseball fans on the internet predicted the M’s to win 86 games and take the AL West title.

*Theo Epstein, the Red Sox’s young star GM, also believes in the power of the glove, considering his signings of Mike Cameron and Carl Crawford the past two years. He is also talked about in the article.

But as the 2010 season unfolded, it was clear that the Mariners were not going anywhere. Chone Figgins, their big offseason signing, was not hitting at all–neither was Casey Kotchman, or Jose Lopez, or anyone else on the entire team. If they wanted to win, the duo of Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee had the impossible task of throwing shutouts practically every time they took the mound. Somewhere along the way, the Twitter tag #6org became the chosen method of mocking the entire situation. I suspect either @samtpage or @willDavidian (correct me if I’m wrong here) was the snarky bastard behind it, and it was glorious. You couldn’t go a day without seeing a pathetic Figgins AVG/OBP/SLG slash line or a hard-luck losing pitching line from Hernandez followed by #6org.

The #6org 2010 Seattle Mariners ended up dead-last in the AL West with a record of 61-101 and scored only 513 runs the entire season. Such offensive ineptitude had not been seen since the inception of the DH. By comparison, the Yankees led the majors with 859 runs scored.

Naturally, when it came time for another go-around with the organizational rankings before this season, Fangraphs revamped their methodology and the Mariners ended up 17th. The team that ranked 6th? The 15-30 Minnesota Twins, who are currently scoring 3.43 runs per game. It’s not quite as horrendous as the 3.17 runs per game the Mariners put up last year, but it’s the worst in baseball.

Is the #6org curse more powerful than the Madden curse or SI jinx? Joe Mauer is battling knee issues and will probably be moved away from catcher sooner rather than later, destroying his positional value, and making his massive contract look much worse. Francisco Liriano may have thrown a no-hitter, but his ERA is 5.73. I guess it doesn’t help that the Twins traded away a competent shortstop in J.J. Hardy just to pay for a set-up man. At least Justin Morneau is finally hitting like a man whose brain isn’t totally concussed.

So which team will be doomed to a shitty season in 2012? Braves? Rockies? Blue Jays? I could see the Rangers dropping from 5th to 6th. If that happened, Josh Hamilton would fall off the wagon and into the coke pile, Neftali Feliz would be stupidly left in the closer role, and Adrian Beltre would hit like he was back in Safeco. At least the Mets have no chance of being named #6org any time soon.

I really started off with basic stats that everyone knows, but I eventually relented and started using the most hardcore baseball stats out there, because I figure the people who actually pay attention to these tweets probably know them. And if not, let me know.

Hit the jump if you want to see a fairly annoyingly formatted post. Sorry.

4/28

Prince Fielder: 14 SB, 9 CS. Robinson Cano: 19 SB, 23 CS.

This is obviously just to point out the fact that Cano should not even be trying to steal bases. He fucking sucks at it. According to who you talk to, the break even point for stolen base percentage ranges from 67% to 75%. Either way, Cano isn’t close.

4/29

Jered Weaver: 34 K, 6 BB. Felix Hernandez: 31 K, 12 BB. @waxinthaksin #alwest

This was just for the benefit of the Angels fan @’d in the tweet. This won’t last.

4/30

Jim Rice: 382 HR, .854 OPS. Jim Edmonds: 383 HR, .905 OPS.

And I didn’t even bother to bring in fielding statistics. Although I guess fear statistics would cancel them out.

5/1

Roy Halladay: 5 W. Roy Halladay: 4 BB. (Thanks for the idea, @310tojoba)

Unfortunately, Halladay now has more walks than wins. I don’t think the dream is dead yet. And by that, I mean him magically turning to shit.

5/2

David Eckstein: 35 HR, 95 wRC+. Vinny Castilla: 320 HR, 93 wRC+. (LOL 90s Coors Field)

This is just fucking hilarious. Vinny Castilla had five straight 30-HR seasons, with three straight 40-HR seasons in the middle of those. Yet the massive park factors and mediocre OBP makes wRC+ calculate David Eckstein as the more valuable hitter. I’m sure someone would look at this as an example of why sabermetrics are retarded.

5/3

Don Mattingly: 128 wRC+, 15 TZ. Keith Hernandez: 131 wRC+, 113 TZ.

Basically this post condensed to a tweet.

5/4

Pete Rose: 198 SB, 149 CS. Jackie Robinson: 197 SB, 30 CS.

Rose might have hustled, but it didn’t make him a good base-stealer. Still better than Cano — a guy who does not live up the player he was named after. Look at that efficiency!

5/5 (ok, 5/6 TECHNICALLY)

Mike Cameron: 1806 K, 265 HR. Ken Griffey Jr.: 1775 K, 630 HR.

I just found this really amusing. Cameron has exactly HALF the home runs of Griffey, yet a few dozen more Ks. And they are both center fielders. Seemed like a fun comparison to make.

5/6

Chase Utley: 2.3 fWAR, $15.3 mil. Ryan Howard: 0.1 fWAR, $19 mil. (fWAR excl. today’s game)

fWAR = Fangraphs WAR. I got the notation from Beyond the Box Score. And it says Utley has been absolutely insane so far this year. We all already knew he was better than Howard, but one month samples make it more fun to point it out.

- Live win probability and win probability graphs.
- Live box score and play-by-play data.
- Basic/Advanced/Value stats for any baseball player.
- Minor league stats.
- Historical game data going back to 1974.

Fuck me in the ass, holy shit. Just look at this beautiful stuff:

I just came in my nerd pants. How much is an iPhone again? I need 24/7 access to baseball stats in such a pretty and informative package!

I’m sad that Fangraphs already beat me to this post, but I already had the idea in my head when I remembered the article. Yes, it’s only from 10 days ago, fuck you I’m going ahead with it. Albert Pujols might be the most insane hitter on the planet, and also the best player period, but Chase Utley is right there behind him. Utley might not be what you’d refer to as a “five-tool player”, but fuck if he doesn’t do everything you’d ever want a player to do on the baseball field. He even looks like an old-school baseball player while he does it. (a.k.a. white!)

Utley plays second base, a premium defensive position. Maybe it’s not quite catcher or shortstop, but it’s still a “fielder’s position.” Not only does he play such a pivotal position, but he plays it as well as anyone in baseball. At the very least, he’s been a top 3 second baseman over the past 5 years. You want UZR? His UZR/150 for the past five seasons: 17.1, 10.2, 21.0, 21.4, 7.7. And actually, that last one should be higher, because something is not right with Fangraphs’ formula. It should probably be closer to 9.0. But this is besides the point — the point is that Utley plays 2B better than you probably think. Maybe he should jump and twist and shout more, like Roberto Alomar.

Want more evidence? There’s a little site called fieldingbible.com and it utilizes a stat called plus/minus. An explanation straight from the site:

Video Scouts at BIS review video of every play of every major league game and record detailed information on each play, such as the location of each batted ball, the speed, the type of hit, etc.

…

A player gets credit (a “plus” number) if he makes a play that at least one other player at his position missed during the season, and he loses credit (a “minus” number) if he misses a play that at least one player made. The size of the credit is directly related to how often players make the play. Each play is looked at individually, and a score is given for each play. Sum up all the plays for each player at his position and you get his total plus/minus for the season. A total plus/minus score near zero means the player is average. A score above zero is above average and a negative score is below average.

Utley’s score from 2006 to 2008? +85

The next highest score at 2B? +58 from Mark Ellis

(More proof of Albert Pujols being awesome — his score was +82)

Baserunning? Utley has stolen 81 bases in his career while being caught only 11 times. That’s an 88% clip. Not to mention he’s a perfect 21 for 21 this season. Jesus Christ, he is good.

And now of course we come to hitting. We all know it’s the name of the game. It’s what makes an everyday baseball player famous 95% of the time. Either you hit a shitload of home runs or you hit for a really high average. That’s how you get into the Hall of Fame. Unfortunately, Utley really doesn’t do either. Sure, he averages 30 HR a year, but that’s not an eye-popping amount, especially in this era. And his career average is just below .300 at .298. He can’t be that good a hitter then, right? Wrong. (I apologize for that.)

Utley is a great hitter who every season hovers around a .400 OBP, hits 30 home runs and 40 doubles, drives in 100 runs, and also scores 100 runs. His OBP is helped by his massive amount of HBPs every season (over 20), but he does it without wearing some huge piece of armor on his arm — unlike Craig Biggio, that fucking pussy. The guy is good. He’s not Pujols or A-Rod, but he can hit. Over the past five years, his OPS+ is at 136. By comparison, the lumbering first baseman next to him who is such a “great slugger” is at 141. And that guy plays a shitty 1B.

Anything I missed? Fielding, baserunning, hitting? Check, check, check. Fucking? Maybe Jeter has him beat there. MVP = Most Vaginas Penetrated. That Deadspin comment killed me. Intangibles? Maybe Captain Intangibles still has him beat, but Utley does have a ring now, and he played though a hip injury for half a season. He also never talks shit or complains about anything, it seems. Admittedly, he did say “World FUCKING Champions” in front of a crowd no doubt including children, but I can gloss over that; the Philly-ness has to come out sometime. He just plays the game the right way, and I can appreciate that. I’m not saying he’s GRITTY or SCRAPPY, but he goes out there and plays the game, and plays it as well as anyone. Pujols does the same for the most part, but he likes admiring his home runs a bit too much. Fuck him.

I’m going to wrap this up with Fangraphs’ WAR evaluations. WAR = Wins Above Replacement, which basically tells you how valuable a player is over some regular scrub from AAA. Let’s just go straight to the numbers.

Over the past 5 seasons, these are the totals for the top six players/pitchers in baseball:

Pujols – 40.3
Utley – 37.9
A-Rod – 33.7
Roy Halladay – 30.2
C.C. Sabathia – 30.1
David Wright – 29.7

Yes, I made it six just so I could include Wright. What are you going to do about it? The WAR evaluation is obviously not an exact science — even Fangraphs acknowledges this — but it’s probably a good approximation.

Basically, Pujols and Utley own the rest of the league. Yet Utley has never finished higher than 7th in MVP voting during the same stretch in which two of his undeserving teammates have each won one. (For the record, Howard is at 20.4 WAR and Rollins is at 22.9.) Fuck sportswriters. If Utley continues on a regular career path, he’s a Hall of Famer. Hopefully all the old dudes who can’t get past batting average and RBIs are dead by the time he is eligible.

P.S. I still can’t believe Fangraphs did this article 10 days ago. FUCK.

Do you like baseball? Do you like stats? You should get your ass over to this gift from heaven. In the past few months, Fangraphs has gone from a pretty cool site with a win probability graph gimmick to one of the best places to go for a shitload of numbers and statistical analysis. The coolest thing they have recently added is easily Value Wins for each player, and their corresponding worth in dollars. Albert Pujols was worth $40.5 MILLION last year, according to their methodology. That is obscene. It’s so fun to see where they rank players according to that, and since all their stats are downloadable in Excel format, you can mess around with the numbers yourself to come up with some crazy player evaluation formulas.

Top 10 Most Valuable Players 2008

Albert Pujols $40.5
Chase Utley $36.8
Chipper Jones $34.1
Hanley Ramirez $32.7
David Wright $32.2
Lance Berkman $31.7
Grady Sizemore $31.7
Mark Teixeira $30.5
Dustin Pedroia $29.6
Manny Ramirez $29.2

Why did I bother posting that? Because A-Rod isn’t there. I think Fangraphs has a Madonna Factor somewhere in their formulas. This is why I love them.

But really, the site is fucking awesome. They even have the Bill James and Marcel 2009 projections in their player pages. wRAA, wOBA, UZR, WPA, batted ball percentages, plate discipline, pitch types….I can drown myself in this shit. If you like baseball, you should too.