According to the media, Mariano Rivera “officially” became the greatest closer ever a few days ago when he broke the all-time saves record. The assumption that Rivera needed to save one more game than Trevor Hoffman to be considered the greatest one-inning pitcher in history is laughable, but here we are. But the more heated discussion has been about whether Rivera or Derek Jeter has been more indispensible over the Yankees’ reign of dominance.

Rivera’s 602 saves (wait, the number is already up to 603) have all occurred during the regular season, which might as well be warm-up games for the modern New York Yankees. Since the 1994 strike, they have missed the playoffs just once. The 2008 season notwithstanding, has there really ever been any doubt of the Yankees making the postseason? Their payroll is consistently enormous, and if there’s a chance they might not make the playoffs, Brian Cashman makes sure to reload at the trade deadline. Making the playoffs is as routine for the Yankees as sub-.500 seasons are for the Pirates.*

*This reminds me of when I lashed out against a Yankee fan who said “preseason football > regular season baseball” on Twitter. This is because he prefers football and also because regular season baseball translates to preseason baseball in Yankeeland.

I don’t think it’s disingenuous, then, to focus on postseason performance. But I want to be clear here: there’s a difference between claiming a player has been a brilliant playoff performer and claiming he has been innately clutch (or, in contrast, a choke artist). Does Mariano Rivera’s superhuman performance in the postseason mean he’s going to continue having an ERA under 1? Almost definitely not, but his entire body of work as a closer does make him better suited for the role than anyone else. On the other side of the spectrum, Alex Rodriguez did kinda suck in a few postseasons with the Yankees, but that didn’t make him a “choker,” and he didn’t magically become “clutch” in 2009. This is the distinction between the actual value of past performance and the predictive value of said performance.

Mariano Rivera’s career postseason stats are absolutely disgusting: A 0.77 ERA and 0.766 WHIP, with 42 saves and 5 blown saves.* The number of blown saves might be shocking, but it shouldn’t be surprising that two of them occurred during the most famous collapse in baseball postseason history – the 2004 ALCS.** In fact, the only time the Yankees won a series where Rivera blew only one save was the preceding series against the Twins. The Yankees ended up winning that game anyway, though, because the Twins are fucking worthless against the Yankees in the playoffs. In October, as Rivera goes, so go the Yankees.

*I wish Fangraphs’ postseason shutdown and meltdown stats went back further than 2002. Since then, Rivera has had 19 shutdowns and 2 meltdowns. By comparison: Brad Lidge, 18-4; Jonathan Papelbon, 11-1 (wow); Joe Nathan, 2-5 (lol); Brian Wilson, 6-1.

**One of the blown saves was extremely unfair, as Rivera entered with runners at 1st and 3rd with no out and managed to allow only one run; he actually increased the Yankees’ chance of winning in that outing.

I’m a big proponent of FIP and xFIP, especially when it comes to closers, but the disparity between Rivera’s 0.77 ERA and 2.24 FIP and 3.21 xFIP over 139.2 IP definitely tests my faith in the metrics. Such a large disparity cannot be seen with some of the best individual seasons by other closers, who pitched in only half as many innings. For example, Dennis Eckersley’s 0.61 ERA in 1990 was backed up by a 1.34 FIP. I’m sure you could probably find seasons that disprove my general notion (Eric O’Flaherty this year is a candidate), but I think Rivera’s postseason tERA of 1.86 is probably closer to telling the true story of broken bat grounders, since it incorporates batted-ball data. He has managed to keep his career BABIP at .262, after all. The .216 mark in the postseason is definitely indicative of some luck, but it’s impossible to say how much. I think any way you slice it, it’s tough to envision a closer doing better over 16 seasons of postseason play.
In contrast to Rivera, Jeter’s postseason performance has been unremarkable when compared to his career. His postseason batting line of .309/.377/.472 is nearly identical to his regular season line of .313/.383/.449. It should be noted that these stats are still pretty great for a shortstop. And we’ve all seen the crazy plays he’s made in the field, and his clutch November home runs. He’s basically a great player in every situation. Yet Win Probability Added (WPA) tells me the craziest thing: Derek Jeter has hurt the Yankees overall chances when he’s been at the plate in the postseason (-0.58 WPA). Go ahead, look it up. Look at that clutch rating (-1.14)! Derek Jeter is a “choke artist”! But if you want to take leverage out of the equation with WPA/LI, Jeter manages to get into positive territory (0.56). I guess he’s ok.

I think you know where I’m going with this. Mariano Rivera’s postseason WPA is a whopping 4.86. Even if we strip out leverage (in the form of LI), which is going to heavily favor a closer, his WPA/LI is still 2.73. That’s over five times higher than Jeter’s. But there is an important point here, as WPA and WPA/LI do not factor in defense at all. Jeter playing shortstop is worth something — quite a bit actually. This is evident when you look at both players’ regular season Wins Above Replacement (WAR) total and see how far ahead Jeter is, despite Rivera being slightly ahead in WPA/LI. This is why for any other team I would emphatically say that Jeter is the more important and valuable player. But Rivera has been the perfect man for the perfect time and place in baseball history. He has arguably been better at his position than anyone other player, for the team that needed it most. Rivera has been used basically twice as much in the postseason as in meaningless April-September games.

I’m going to play fast and loose with some metrics here, but looking at the value of Rivera’s ~2.00 FIP seasons, he has probably been worth around 6 WAR in the postseason; Jeter, depending on defensive metrics, has been worth anywhere from 5-6 WAR. But WAR is context-neutral, and, as I’ve tried to show, Rivera has, in the aggregate, outperformed Jeter at the crucial moments. This is not to say that in an alternate universe, Jeter wouldn’t have performed better and Rivera would have seemed more human. Given a choice in 1995, knowing both of their true talent levels going forward and their career regular season performances, you would take Jeter. But looking back, Rivera has been more integral to the Yankees’ postseason success, and for them that’s literally all that matters.

Now watch Rivera blow up this October against the Red Sox.

It’s amazing what one season out of the AL East ghetto can do for a pitcher’s reputation. In 2010, Halladay pitched like he has for years now, only in the weaker NL and for the winningest team in baseball. His nine complete games and four shutouts equaled his output in 2009, and his ERA was just a bit lower, to go along with the best K/BB ratio of his career. He’s going to win the second Cy Young of his career, becoming the fifth player to win the award in both leagues. And of course, he threw the 18th perfect game in modern baseball history.

But all that was only a precursor. I knew the Phillies were going to make it back to the postseason and I wondered how Halladay could possibly outdo Cliff Lee’s performance for the Phillies last postseason. Halladay responded by throwing a no-hitter in his first postseason game, managing to completely overshadow a 10 K, 0 BB performance by Lee earlier in the day. He effortlessly disposed of a juggernaut Reds offense, with Jay Bruce being the only player to reach base on a walk. There were maybe two hard hit balls. Halladay was seemingly able to throw all four of his pitches in any count in any location. Much like his perfect game earlier this year, he made the improbable look routine and inevitable.

Halladay is the first pitcher since Nolan Ryan in 1973 to throw two no-hitters in the same season. He’s only the second pitcher to throw a postseason no-hitter — joining Don Larsen, who threw a perfect game in the 1956 World Series. The only way Halladay could top that is to throw one in the seventh game of the World Series against Lee.

So is there any doubt in anyone’s mind that Halladay is going to dominate the rest of the postseason? It’s not rational, but I don’t think I can envision a team scoring more than two runs off of him. Sure, it’s amazing what one season can do, but it’s even more incredible what one game can do.

Why does he have to pitch for the Phillies? Goddamn it.

The half-billion dollar shopping spree paid off. The Yankees have opened their new monstrous stadium with a World Series Championship. I still can’t believe SI picked the Mets instead. How could have anyone picked a team other than one with All-Star caliber players at almost every single position, a decent pitching staff, and the best closer anyone will ever see? Oh well, hindsight is 20/20 and all that bullshit.

If Game 6 wasn’t over when Hideki Matsui hit the double that made it 7-1 in the 5th, the Phillies were buried when Chase Utley struck out with two on to end the 7th. So Utley has to share the World Series HR record with Reggie Jackson, unfortunately. Ryan Howard did manage to put himself on top of the World Series record book, though, with his 13th strikeout of the series. Without him, the Phillies had almost no chance to pull out the series; only Utley going apeshit kept the Phillies going this long. I told you Utley was awesome.

I was hoping for a Game 7, but five days’ rest wasn’t enough for Pedro, apparently. Meanwhile, Andy Pettitte gave the Yankees all they could have hoped for on three days’ rest. Mike Francesa proven wrong. And a 41-pitch non-save for Mariano Rivera? No problem.

I wonder what Mike Mussina is doing right now.

How did I ever decide to root for the Phillies?

Actually, in practice I’ve been seemingly going back and forth by player this entire World Series.

Cliff Lee? Wow, he’s a pimp, I want him to throw a shutout.

Jimmy Rollins? Shut the fuck up and strike out, please.

A-Rod? You fucking suck. Six Ks? Is Kate Hudson on the rag?

Chase Utley? Oh my God, you truly are my forbidden crush.

Mariano Rivera? No way I want to see the Phillies beat you.

Shane Victorino? Die in a Hawaiian volcanic eruption.

Perhaps I need to take this advice, and just look at the bright side of each possible outcome. If the Yankees lose, A-Rod still doesn’t have a ring, Yankee fans turn on every possible player, and the Yankees lose any possible claim at team of the decade. If the Phillies lose, they won’t be the first NL team to repeat in over 30 years, Philly doesn’t become the new Boston, and Jimmy Rollins shuts up.

As for comments on the actual game tonight, it was another pitchers’ duel that this time fell on the Yankees’ side. Pedro’s line was dangerously close to my prediction (three runs instead of four), and A.J. Burnett pitched a great, if not brilliant, game. And then of course Mariano Rivera threw 39 pitches in another ho-hum two-inning postseason save. That was the 14th two-inning save of his postseason career, and the 33rd time he pitched at least 2 innings in any situation. Piece of cake.

Succeeding Rivera as Yankee closer will be the worst job in the world.

Cliff Lee looked like didn’t even break a sweat tonight. He made a behind-the-back play later in the game, and also nonchalantly tagged Posada on the ass on another play. He struck out 10 while walking none (the first man to do that since 1903), and only lost his shutout due to a Jimmy Rollins throwing error. I do question the wisdom of keeping him out there for 122 pitches when he has to come back on three days’ rest (possibly twice), but that’s what Charlie Manuel does. This is the manager who left Pedro Martinez in a game for 130 pitches in a regular-season game.

The only man who had Lee figured out was Derek Jeter, of course. A-Rod didn’t fair quite as well, striking out three times and laying the foundation for imminent bashing in the New York Post. The rest of the team didn’t do much better, with the lineup behind Jeter only accounting for three hits. Lee was simply dominant throughout, and the Yankees crowd was consequently subdued almost the entire night.

The supporting star behind Lee was Chase Utley, who supplied enough offense to beat the Yankees by himself. Two solo home runs — I told you he was awesome. If he wins the World Series MVP, I hope it’s sponsored by this:

The man would have fit nicely on the Yankee teams of the 1930s, I’m sure.

So now the story turns to Pedro Martinez pitching tomorrow, and my prediction is for a six-inning, four-run performance. You’re not in the NL anymore, old man! The big question is which A.J. Burnett will show up, especially since having to start Jose Molina isn’t exactly going to help the Yankees’ lineup top tonight’s pathetic performance. I hate to say must-win, but I’m going to say it. If the Yankees lose to Pedro tomorrow, they are in the proverbial shit.

(Thanks to Hootie on GAF for the GIF.)

When the inevitability of this matchup became clear, I had no doubt in my mind that I’d be rooting against the Phillies. My allegiance would be with New York City in the battle against the shithole that is Philadelphia. Philly might have Rocky and It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia, but fuck them, I thought. Their fanbase is probably the worst group of human beings collected this side of an African dictatorship. And they’re not too bright, either.

This is not to mention the team itself. I’ll just quote myself here:

Shane Victorino is a little piece of shit Hawaiian who plays dirty; Jimmy Rollins runs his mouth and wins MVPs due to it, even when he doesn’t deserve it; Ryan Howard is an overrated slugger who strikes out on a lefty slider seemingly every time I see him at the plate; and Brett Myers beats his wife and puts his kid in a Confederate flag shirt.

The Phillies advancing through the postseason on the back of Ryan Howard — while Chase Utley throws away double play balls — is a personal nightmare for me. Utley is a better baseball player than Howard, yet he will probably never win an MVP award, and everyone is on Howard’s jock due to his performance in nine games. Cole Hamels received the same treatment last year and he turned in a down year in 2009 and has now been supplanted by a 38-year-old in the rotation. Pedro Martinez may be no ordinary 38-year-old, but it’s still quite a shift in one season. The small sample size of the postseason means jack shit.

This brings us to the Yankees, and Alex Rodriguez’s tale of redemption. This is where I start thinking it’d be fantastic if the Yankees lost. Who wouldn’t want to see A-Rod fail miserably in the World Series and watch the entire Yankees Universeâ„¢ turn on him once again? I get chills imagining the boos that would cascade down if he grounded into a double play to end Game 7. Isn’t it beautiful to envision the typical Yankee fan turning on a player just as quickly as he was deified? Two series may have seemingly wiped out any bitterness of postseasons past, but a 2-20 performance by A-Rod culminating in a World Series loss would only bring back the cries for A-Rod’s head. He would have proved himself yet again to not be a True Yankeeâ„¢.

Is hope for this outcome enough for me to root for the Phillies? It just might be. You may be asking why I hate A-Rod so much, and it’s a reasonable question. It’s not the money, because every baseball player makes too much money. It’s not his sexual history, because anyone who has sex with Madonna has to be scarred for life. It’s that everything, EVERYTHING he does looks rehearsed and devoid of true joy. Maybe it’s just his face — and my urge to punch it — that clouds my judgment, but I see him as some soulless entity who was created solely to be very, very good at baseball.

An addition consideration is that perhaps I still hate the Braves more than the Phillies. Sure, the Phillies embarrassed the Mets in 2007 and 2008, but that was just as much (if not more) a product of the Mets collapsing than it was of the Phillies rallying. Should I hate the Phillies for the Mets’ bullpen being worthless last year? Or for Jose Reyes forgetting how to hit in September of 2007? Maybe I truly appreciate the team the Phillies have put together, even if I hate them. The organization didn’t sit on its hands after a World Series championship — they went out and got Raul Ibanez (which I thought was a bad move, admittedly), and then during the season picked up Cliff Lee and Pedro Martinez for peanuts. They built a championship team without shelling out almost half a billion dollars for three players.

I didn’t know where I’d end up at the end of this post, but it looks like I’m falling on the side of the Phillies. I don’t even know myself anymore.

C.C.’s final line for the night: 8 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 5 K, 101 pitches

That’s pretty economical — I’m sure C.C. wasn’t even tired by the end of his outing, only hungry. I should probably add those 5 postgame BLTs to his final line. You know it’s a good C.C. game when he has a 1:1 hit-to-BLT ratio.

So it’s looking like a Yankees-Phillies World Series, as LA is on the precipice of annihilation, much to the chagrin of Pat Sajak and this little girl:

The ALCS is supposed to start tomorrow, but somehow I can’t see it getting kicked off, considering it’s been raining all day and the precipitation looks to continue for the next couple of days. So not only will my tennis lesson on Saturday be canceled — shut up — I might not have a game to watch that day, either. Not to mention it’s chilly as fuck for mid-October in New York. What the hell is up with that?

[Insert obligatory anecdotal GLOBAL WARMING IS BULLSHIT comment.]

My other baseball annoyance of the day was arguing with a Phillies fan about the MVP of their team. It hasn’t been anyone but Chase Utley for four years. Sure, Ryan Howard loves his HR and RBIs, but Utley does EVERYTHING — especially getting on base in front of Howard. I need to find out a way to look up how many times Howard hit Utley in. Baseball-Reference, don’t fail me now.

Yesterday, the Cardinals were put out of their misery. Today we witnessed the end of both ALDS series. One sweep was expected, what with Andy Pettitte matching up against Carl Pavano, but I can’t imagine many people saw the Red Sox blowing a 5-2 lead through 7 innings. The combination of Billy Wagner and Jonathon Papelbon gave up 4 runs in the final two innings, forcing Massholes to leave the stadium in a state that only could have lead to many racial slurs being shouted and wives and girlfriends getting beaten.

Going into the playoffs I’m sure many people figured the Twins would get swept, but both the Red Sox and Cardinals going down in flames has to be a surprise to most baseball fans — and ESPN experts. Last year, everyone picked the Cubs to roll over the Dodgers and we all saw how that turned out. I really shouldn’t bother posting the following, since it happens every year in every sport, but it’s fun nonetheless. They get paid for these predictions!

It’s kinda amazing: the two AL closers who are supposed to be close to Mariano Rivera’s level both failed spectacularly in a past few days. Today was the first time Jonathon Papelbon ever let up a run in the postseason, but it would have been fine if he only let up a run (instead of three). The moron threw 26 straight fastballs. I guess he was attempting his best Rivera impression, only without the success. As for the other closer, the guy who is always seemingly overlooked and underrated, Joe Nathan, showed why he’s not worth a second look. Holy shit, he sucked. Yeah, yeah small sample size, but he still sucked. He single-handedly made A-Rod amazing in the postseason! I thought A-Rod sucked? I guess that means Nathan sucks more. Simple logic here, people.

Totally awesome note: A-Rod has a higher postseason OPS than Derek Jeter.

Meanwhile, Rivera pitched 3.2 scoreless innings in the series, notching 7 strikeouts in the process. Somehow this is not surprising, considering we’ve all come to the consensus that he’s an android from the future.

So all that’s left is a Phillies-Rockies series that is in the middle of its 3rd game as I type this — which reminds me of how moronic the scheduling today was. Who’s idea was it to play a game in Denver at 7 pm local time? Because when I think of baseball, I think of 30 degree weather. And playing a game involving a West Coast team at noon eastern time — meaning people in California needed to wake up at 9 am on a Sunday to watch playoff baseball — is just a dick move. Bud Selig is a senile old man who has no business running a multi-billion dollar business, ugh.

That has to be the worst error on a potential final out in a playoff game since Buckner. Feel free to enlighten or remind me of anything in the past 23 years so embarrassing and devastating to occur with two outs in the 9th inning. Matt Holliday got hit in the nuts with a fly ball and then tripped over his own feet. It doesn’t get any more emasculating than that on a baseball field.

So, the Cardinals are pretty much done now. Anything’s possible, of course — I know that better than anyone now due to recent events — but asking a team to come back after sending out two of the five best starters in the NL this year and LOSING is asking a wee bit too much. I’m so pissed I didn’t make a preseason prediction post or a postseason prediction post. Before making any decisions, it’s advisable to check out 4Rabet user reviews to learn about the platform’s reputation and reliability. I would have picked the Dodgers both times! Damn it. If only Twitter kept track of everything I ever posted, or else I could link to the random time I replied to someone’s question with my prediction of a Yankees-Dodgers World Series. You’d have to believe me!

Getting back to that one-game playoff, how fucking amazing was that? I thought that game was over at least five times. Game of the year material? And is Chip Caray worst professional announcer in the history of mankind material? LINE DRIVE BASE HIT — CAUGHT! He makes Ron Darling worse by being in the same booth with him, goddamn it. The only good thing about TBS’s coverage so far has been that Pitch Trax graphic. Now everyone knows it’s truly the YEAR OF THE UMP — COMPUTERS 2010â„¢.