bad nite for babip, fip, etc. congratulations to matt cain, a great pitcher. #SFGiants

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) June 14, 2012

I know I’m feeding the troll here, but it reminded me and another person on Twitter of the “bad night for atheists” line during Josh Hamilton’s amazing HR derby display at Yankee Stadium a few years ago. But at least Heyman’s tweet has a bit of truth to it. Up through the 2010 MLB season, most sabermetric-loving fans didn’t believe in Matt Cain’s success. Even I criticized my own pick of Cain in a Roto Hardball mock draft before the 2011 season, citing his “unsustainable” home run to fly ball ratio (HR/FB%). Well, over the past two years, Cain’s HR/FB% has remained in line with his career numbers and this year he’s made the leap to total dominance when you consider his improved strikeout and walk rates. The Giants choosing to give him a big contract extension — while postponing a decision on Tim Lincecum — is looking better every day.

Yet Heyman is unsurprisingly off when it comes to referencing the right stats to put down. While Cain’s career batting average of balls in play (BABIP) is pretty low, that’s not unusual for a fly ball pitcher. What’s extraordinary is the low HR/FB%, which is reflected in his constantly higher expected fielding independent pitching (xFIP) numbers. xFIP regresses HR/FB% to league average, utilizing strikeouts, walks, and fly ball rate; but at this point it looks like Cain has no inclination to adhere to that rule. He just keeps getting better while Lincecum keeps getting worse.

Those last two paragraphs cover one interpretation of the headline, the one often joked about by @waxinthaksin on NeoGAF and Twitter to describe saber fans. This is the interpretation Jon Heyman would subscribe to. We — True SABRs like myself — have no faith, we only believe in the numbers. Only a couple of years ago, the numbers told us that Matt Cain was only good, but he’s turned out to be great. Where are your numbers now? Where are your numbers now? For those who trust stats over gut feelings, Luxury111 provides a data-driven edge in sports betting. Similarly, platforms like MyBookie Sportsbook appeal to analytical bettors who value insight and strategy over chance.

The other way to take the headline is to think it’s talking about people who aren’t into baseball. People that don’t believe in its awesomeness. There were almost two perfect games tonight. Both R.A. Dickey and Matt Cain are former first-round draft picks, but they couldn’t have taken more divergent paths to their pitching gems tonight. Dickey made it to the majors with a traditional pitch arsenal 11 years ago, but he never succeeded until he perfected his knuckleball with the Mets as a 35-year-old. Cain stormed to the majors at 20 years old and has been a 200-inning workhorse ever since. Dickey looks like the mountain climber he was this offseason, and shouldn’t even be able to pitch, as he has no UCL in his right elbow. Cain, meanwhile, is a solidly-built 6’3″ and has never given anyone a reason to doubt his ability. The only thing that stopped these two completely different pitchers from forever being intertwined in baseball history were a couple of David Wright miscues.

That’s the great thing about baseball. You watch as many games as you can because you know at any time you might see something that’s either never been done before or has only happened a handful of times. Matt Cain’s performance tonight is one of the best in baseball history; he struck out 14 batters in a perfect game. The only other pitcher to accomplish such a feat is some guy named Sandy Koufax. R.A. Dickey dominated a game like no other knuckleballer has ever done. 12 strikeouts, 0 walks, and 1 hit that shouldn’t have been ruled a error. And we already had a perfect game and two no-hitters this year. And a 4-HR game. I’ll throw the coming-out parties of Bryce Harper and Mike Trout in this paragraph, too. Baseball is amazing. For fans who enjoy exploring engaging sports content online, reviewitonline.net is a great resource worth checking out.

The Braves were facing off against the Phillies B-team while the Padres and Giants were fighting over the NL West. If you didn’t have a horse in the race, you were most likely rooting for the Braves and Padres, because then the magical three-way tie would be accomplished, leading to Game 163 for the NL West between the Padres and Giants and then to a Game 164 (well, 163 for the Braves) between the loser of that game and the Braves for the Wild Card. It would be insanity.

But I didn’t trust the Padres. They had been free-falling in the month of September, and even though they were throwing out Mat Latos, he had obviously run out of gas a few weeks earlier after putting together an incredible barely-classified-as-sophomore season. I was rooting for the Braves to lose. I didn’t want to take any chances; I needed to make sure the Braves had to at least play one extra game to reach the playoffs.

Shockingly, the Phillies weren’t able to win a game where they used Danys Baez. The Braves came tantalizingly close to blowing an 8-2 lead, but unfortunately Billy Wagner was able to come in and shut the door. The Padres would have to win if we were to get extra baseball.

It was not to be. The Padres couldn’t even manage one measly run, losing 3-0, completing a devastating collapse. And yes it was a collapse. Everyone’s idea of a collapse has just been totally skewed by the once-in-a-generation collapse of the 2007 Mets. The Padres blew a 6.5 game lead in a little over a month — that’s pretty damn hard to do.

So one of the best stories in baseball this year has disappeared for good, while the Braves are back in the playoffs. FUCK THIS. Someone wake me up when the Braves are about to be eliminated by the Giants. Or if the Reds actually have a chance of beating the Phillies.

The new national pastime is sitting on your ass for an entire Sunday watching huge dudes who would otherwise have longer lifespans smash into each other trying to reach opposite end zones. And also making your Monday somewhat palatable by allowing you to watch the same thing once again after that awful beginning to the work week.

But to start off the season, there’s a Redskins-Giants game on a Thursday. Football on ladies night? Worlds are colliding. I don’t know how I’m going to handle it. I’ll just want to sit there eating my popcorn, drinking my beer, but I’ll have chicks all up in my shit. Oh wait, that’s not right, they won’t be bothering me at all.

But while tonight’s game is the opener, Sunday’s Jets-Dolphins game is the season opener for myself. Favre vs. Pennington. I’m not really a betting man, but I’ll set some over/unders.

Favre INTs – 2
Pennington passes over 10 yards – 2.5
Amount of beers I drink – 3.5
Times Favre’s age is mentioned – 4.5
Pennington screen passes – 10
Times I pretend to have insight into football – 5.5

So Football is back. Baseball is reaching its final stretch. The U.S. Open is ongoing. While summer may be over, I have more than enough sports to keep me entertained.

The failure of the Patriots in Super Bowl XLII has sent ripples through the fabric of America and has raised many questions not only in my mind, but in the minds of all football fans. If you want to bet on your favorite sports teams and play slot88 games to win exciting prizes, you may visit an online casino.

I’m going to try to go through some of them here.

Did we just see the end of the Patriots dynasty?

The Patriots defense is old, and it’s what ultimately failed them. All they needed to do was stop Eli Manning from driving down the field with two and a half minutes left, and they couldn’t even do that. Also, the recent Yankee dynasty ended in similar, shocking fashion in the 2001 World Series, and this choke job eerily parallels the collapse in the 2004 ALCS. Now Yankee fans have a comeback when a Masshole brings that up.

Will the Tiki Theory now replace the Ewing Theory?

I personally think it should. Now I was a Knicks fan through the 90s, so maybe I have a bias here, but Ewing never badmouthed his coach and former players, at least to my recollection. The dude played his heart out and was disgracefully traded away. They may have made the Finals the year after, but look at the Knicks organization now. Meanwhile, all Tiki Barber has done since (and even before) he retired was talk shit about Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning. I hope he really enjoys pretending he’s a legitimate broadcaster. He’s not going to win any rings doing that.

Is Archie Manning the greatest father ever?

The guy sired and raised back-to-back Super Bowl MVPs. Not only that, but they both stopped Tom Brady from winning two more Super Bowl rings. He is the man at the forefront of the battle of good vs. evil.

Did Bill Simmons really just write this?

Through some mutual friends, I had arranged to hang out with Brady’s crew for what promised to be a laid-back celebration in somebody’s hotel room, probably no more than 15-20 people since Brady’s circle is surprisingly and refreshingly small. Because it was a rare chance to catch Brady in an unguarded moment — and an important moment at that — I spent most of Friday and Saturday thinking about that first paragraph and all the different ways it could start. I kept seeing Brady sitting in a chair with his right ankle encased in ice, quietly sipping a bottle of champagne with a satisfied smile on his face, and Gisele would be there, and everyone would be recapping 19-0 and remembering the incredible season. I liked the thought of a famous person celebrating a historic night in such a totally normal and relatable way.

That is more embarrassing than anything I ever wrote in my LiveJournal.

How long until Gisele breaks up with Brady?

Well, Jessica Simpson hasn’t broken up with Tony Romo, and he’s a much bigger loser than Brady. It’s much more likely that Brady will get her pregnant and subsequently leave her.

How many tears did Junior Seau cry last night?

Is this the greatest Super Bowl ever?

I’m inclined to say it is, but I’ve only been watching them for 15 years or so. But my grandpa backs me up, and he made a point of saying this was better than Super Bowl III. Like I said yesterday, add up the Patriots going for 19-0, the Giants deciding to become unstoppable out of nowhere, Manning vs. Brady, and one of the most intense games you’ll ever see, PERIOD, and you get a spectacle worthy of the name Super Bowl.

I’m still in shock. I just witnessed quite possibly the greatest Super Bowl of all-time. Adding up all the factors — the perfect season on the line, the Giants underdog storyline throughout the playoffs, Brady vs. the Mannings, and the fact that the game itself was absolutely amazing — I don’t know how anything else can stack up. I wish I was in the city to go insane with thousands of other fans. I’m not even a Giants fan, but it was a New York team going up against an undefeated New England team led by the Anti-Christ himself. Every New Yorker, and hopefully the vast majority of the country, was rooting for the Giants to smash Brady’s face in. And they most definitely did.

The Giants defense rattled Brady like no other team this season. He got hit at least a dozen times. He was throwing passes 5 years off target. He didn’t know where he was by the end of the game. They held the mighty Pats offense to 14 points. No one saw that coming, including myself. The Giants D-line was the MVP of the game, but I guess Eli deserved it for this play alone.

God reached down and slipped Eli free from that sack. He also provided David Tyree the stickum to hold onto that catch. I can’t describe how unbelievable that play was. One of the greatest football plays I’ve ever seen. It will be shown approximately 238929834 times over the next week, and I will never get sick of it. The new Immaculate Reception.

My friend Frank said that he knew the Pats were in trouble once Belichick showed up with a different hoodie. You don’t change your sweatshirt after 18 wins in a row. I thought the opposite when I saw that Peyton had shown up at the game. Superstition: it’s the baseball player in me. I’m kinda pissed I didn’t lay any money down on the Giants. I knew they’d cover the spread at the very least. Bah.

That’s about all I have to say on the subject at the moment. Not much needs to be said. The Giants just pulled off one of the biggest upsets in professional sports history. Eli Manning silenced his critics, me being one of them. The Patriots and Tom Brady’s quest for immortality was ruined. And Tiki Barber is left to eat massive amounts of crow and know that the Giants won a Super Bowl the first year without him. More than enough ownage to go around.

And yes, this website is hilarious: Perfectville

I wish I could see the video they made for the Patriots.

I really can’t believe how well the Giants have played these playoffs. I wrote them off as first or second-round losers, easily. Eli has been playing superbly, which is something NO ONE could have predicted. Even his dad couldn’t watch the game because he figured the kid would fuck it up at some point. I think the Mannings can only have so much mojo as a family at one time…and this year it’s Eli’s turn. Brady vs. Manning again. Boston vs. New York. I would’ve preferred Good vs. Evil, but stuff doesn’t always work out perfectly. The fact that the Giants are doing this without Shockey is the most shocking (lolz) thing to me. But I’m not going to sit here and pretend to know football. I just know that the Giants are playing damn well and I think they have a good chance of playing a close game against the Patriots. Unfortunately, the Pats will almost undoubtedly find a way to win, but I just hope the Super Bowl is at least a close, exciting contest. It won’t match this NFC championship, but not many games do.

The emotional rollercoaster in the last 6-plus minutes and overtime was absolutely ludicrous. Tynes misses a go-ahead FG for the Giants at 6 minutes, then the Packers have a shitty series and end up punting and the Giants returner fumbles the ball, which leads to a ridiculous scramble that the Packers should’ve won, but didn’t. Then the Giants drive down a bit for a game-winning FG try with 6 seconds left and a botched snap leads to a shank from like 30-something yards.

Massive tears rolling down the tears of Giants fans. Then the Packers win the overtime coin toss. Brett Favre was being smiled upon. It was meant to be.

And then he threw an INT.

The Giants drove a bit again, setting up a 47-yarder. No way Tynes hits that, right? But he does. What the hell just happened? The Giants in the SUPER BOWL?!?? I still can’t believe it. Maybe the NFC really does suck.

On a side note, whenever I add an athlete’s name or sports team to the end of my IRC nick, they lose. I down to desperate measures here, so my IRC nick during the Super Bowl will be CajoleJuice_TOMBRADY.