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	<title>Somewhat Manly Nerd &#187; bert blyleven</title>
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	<description>infrequent blogging from some dude</description>
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		<title>Random Baseball Stats Comparison Round-Up &#8211; 5/14/10</title>
		<link>http://somewhatmanlynerd.com/blog/2010/05/14/random-baseball-stats-comparison-round-up-51410/</link>
		<comments>http://somewhatmanlynerd.com/blog/2010/05/14/random-baseball-stats-comparison-round-up-51410/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 14 May 2010 19:44:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>CajoleJuice</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Sports]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[baseball]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bert blyleven]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[brady anderson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cal ripken jr.]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[david wright]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[derek jeter]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[jamie moyer]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[livan hernandez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[nationals]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[stats]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[tom glavine]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[tony gwynn]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://somewhatmanlynerd.com/blog/?p=2772</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I guess I posted the first one of these on a Thursday &#8212; why did I think I posted it last Friday? I need to decide on a day.
If I didn&#8217;t make it clear with the last post, I&#8217;m keeping track of all these tweets because I know they eventually disappear (into the Library of [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>I guess I posted the first one of these on a Thursday &#8212; why did I think I posted it last Friday? I need to decide on a day.</em></p>
<p><em>If I didn&#8217;t make it clear with the last post, I&#8217;m keeping track of all these tweets because I know they eventually disappear (into the Library of Congress archives), and I also like to expand on the 140-character comparisons.</em></p>
<p><em>Once again, hit the jump for the fun with numbers.</em></p>
<p><em><span id="more-2772"></span></em></p>
<p><a href="http://twitter.com/CajoleJuice/status/13584642888">5/7</a></p>
<blockquote><p>Cal Ripken Jr.: 3185 hits, 8893 outs. Tony Gwynn: 3141 hits, 6662 outs.</p></blockquote>
<p>This is just to show that not all 3,000 hit club members are made alike. Career-wise, Ripken is probably the worst hitter out of all 27 members. Meanwhile, Tony Gwynn was able to slap the ball around wherever he wanted, even at 350 pounds.</p>
<p><a href="http://twitter.com/CajoleJuice/status/13647056392">5/8</a></p>
<blockquote><p>Jamie Moyer: 2362 K, 1122 BB. Tom Glavine: 2607 K, 1500 BB.</p></blockquote>
<p>I don&#8217;t like Tom Glavine. I believe he&#8217;s only going to make the Hall of Fame because he was so durable and played for the winningest team of the 90s (for some reason, there&#8217;s no easy google search to confirm this, and I&#8217;m not doing the math to compare them to the Yankees). He also got half a foot off the plate until Questek came around. What better way to belittle him than to compare him to Jamie Moyer? This has nothing to do with that final game of 2007, nope.</p>
<p><a href="http://twitter.com/CajoleJuice/status/13701430780">5/9</a></p>
<blockquote><p>Perfect games: 19. Unassisted triple plays: 15. Four-HR games: 15.</p></blockquote>
<p>Sure, the unassisted triple play is all luck &#8212; as opposed to the other two &#8212; but they are all cool numbers anyway.</p>
<p><a href="http://twitter.com/CajoleJuice/status/13756776726">5/10</a></p>
<blockquote><p>Livan Hernandez: 1.04 ERA. Livan Hernandez: 5.18 xFIP.</p></blockquote>
<p>What this means is that this Cuban defector is due to fall back to earth. Hard.</p>
<p><a href="http://twitter.com/CajoleJuice/status/13828670377">5/11</a></p>
<blockquote><p>David Wright, Career: .308/.389/.519. David Wright, 2010: .293/.417/.552.</p></blockquote>
<p>His 2010 numbers have fallen a bit in the past few days, and now he&#8217;s even more in line with his career stats, at least when it comes to OBP and SLG. Sure, he&#8217;s striking out an obscene amount &#8212; which is frustrating as hell &#8212; but he&#8217;s still by far the best hitter on the Mets. And also one of the better hitters in baseball.</p>
<p><a href="http://twitter.com/CajoleJuice/status/13894155583">5/12</a></p>
<blockquote><p>Brady Anderson: 210 HR, 315 SB. Derek Jeter: 228 HR, 308 SB. @<a rel="nofollow" href="http://twitter.com/PixelGorilla">PixelGorilla</a></p></blockquote>
<p>Proof that I give my fans what they want. PixelGorilla asked for a Brady Anderson comparison, so I gave him one.</p>
<p><a href="http://twitter.com/CajoleJuice/status/13936688499">5/13</a></p>
<blockquote><p>Tom Glavine: 4413.1 IP, 118 ERA+, 1.74 K/BB. Bert Blyleven: 4970 IP, 118 ERA+, 2.80 K/BB.</p></blockquote>
<p>More Glavine hate, sorta. Or more just pointing out that if Glavine is a no-doubt Hall of Famer, than so should be Blyleven.</p>
<p><a href="http://twitter.com/CajoleJuice/status/13982502744">5/14</a></p>
<blockquote><p>2010 Nationals, May 14th: 20-15. 2009 Nationals, June 19th: 20-46.</p></blockquote>
<p>This is justÂ mind-blowing. I can&#8217;t believe the Washington Nationals are 20-15. And they haven&#8217;t even called up Strasburg yet. Fuck me.</p>
<blockquote></blockquote>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>I Talk About The Hall of Fame Balloting When Everyone Is Sick Of It</title>
		<link>http://somewhatmanlynerd.com/blog/2010/01/11/i-talk-about-the-hall-of-fame-balloting-when-everyone-is-sick-of-it/</link>
		<comments>http://somewhatmanlynerd.com/blog/2010/01/11/i-talk-about-the-hall-of-fame-balloting-when-everyone-is-sick-of-it/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 11 Jan 2010 06:13:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>CajoleJuice</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Sports]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[alan trammell]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[andre dawson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[baseball]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bert blyleven]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[edgar martinez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[hall of fame]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[jack morris]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[mark mcgwire]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[roberto alomar]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[stats]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[tim raines]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[WAR]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://somewhatmanlynerd.com/blog/?p=2263</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[If you&#8217;re a baseball fan, you might have heard that Andre Dawson will be the Baseball Hall of Fame&#8217;s sole inductee this year. I really don&#8217;t have a major issue with Dawson being inducted; I just have a problem with Dawson being inducted while 7 or 8 more deserving candidates have to wait at least [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>If you&#8217;re a baseball fan, you might have heard that Andre Dawson will be the Baseball Hall of Fame&#8217;s sole inductee this year. I really don&#8217;t have a major issue with Dawson being inducted; I just have a problem with Dawson being inducted while 7 or 8 more deserving candidates have to wait at least another year.</p>
<p>I&#8217;ll try not to go into the usual stuff that has been covered on a ton of other blogs. I wish I saved the links, because I&#8217;m not going to hunt for them.</p>
<p>My initial gut ballot was: Bert Blyleven, Roberto Alomar, Mark McGwire, Tim Raines. Since then, I&#8217;ve reconsidered and would probably add Edgar Martinez, Barry Larkin, and Alan Trammell. So there, seven guys I&#8217;d put in before Dawson.</p>
<p>But I&#8217;m going to steal and add to an idea presented in <a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/andre-dawson-and-two-contemporaries/">this post on The Hardball Times</a>.</p>
<blockquote><p>Wins Above Excellence:</p>
<p>Time to introduce a new junk stat. For this measure, I&#8217;m looking at how many wins a player has above three in a season, though his season total can never be below zero. This gives a player credit for great seasons, and ignores anything where a player is average or below, it neither adds nor hurts a player&#8217;s case for greatness. A great player should not be penalized if he hangs around past his peak contributing a only little bit to his teams.</p></blockquote>
<p>I think three wins is a bit low of a barrier for &#8220;excellence.&#8221; Two wins is average, three wins is good, four wins is great, five wins is excellence.</p>
<p>Going by Fangraphs&#8217; WAR calculations (which I won&#8217;t be using for the historical WAR calculations), last year there were this many players &#8212; not including pitchers &#8212; that hit each of these WAR thresholds:</p>
<p>3 WAR or above: 75<br />
4 WAR or above: 47<br />
5 WAR or above: 24</p>
<p>I&#8217;d definitely define five wins above replacement as excellence. The guys right at the threshold are names like Teixeira, Ichiro, and Sandoval.</p>
<p>But, not many guys collect many wins above 5 WAR. Let&#8217;s look at the numbers for the eight Hall of Fame candidates (including the one future inductee):</p>
<table style="height: 177px;" border="1" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="596">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;" width="113" valign="top">Player</td>
<td style="text-align: center;" width="72" valign="top">Voting %</td>
<td style="text-align: center;" width="80" valign="top">Wins Above<br />
3 WAR</td>
<td style="text-align: center;" width="80" valign="top">Wins Above<br />
4 WAR</td>
<td style="text-align: center;" width="80" valign="top">Wins Above<br />
5 WAR</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="113" valign="top"><strong>Andre Dawson</strong></td>
<td width="72" valign="top"><strong>77.9%</strong></td>
<td width="80" valign="top"><strong>18.3</strong></td>
<td width="80" valign="top"><strong>11.8</strong></td>
<td width="80" valign="top"><strong>7.4</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="113" valign="top">Bert Blyleven</td>
<td width="72" valign="top">74.2%</td>
<td width="80" valign="top">39.7</td>
<td width="80" valign="top">25.1</td>
<td width="80" valign="top">13.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="113" valign="top">Roberto Alomar</td>
<td width="72" valign="top">73.7%</td>
<td width="80" valign="top">25.8</td>
<td width="80" valign="top">15.4</td>
<td width="80" valign="top">8.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="113" valign="top">Jack Morris</td>
<td width="72" valign="top">52.3%</td>
<td width="80" valign="top">9.4</td>
<td width="80" valign="top">3.6</td>
<td width="80" valign="top">0.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="113" valign="top">Barry Larkin</td>
<td width="72" valign="top">51.6%</td>
<td width="80" valign="top">25.7</td>
<td width="80" valign="top">14.9</td>
<td width="80" valign="top">7.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="113" valign="top">Edgar Martinez</td>
<td width="72" valign="top">36.2%</td>
<td width="80" valign="top">28.6</td>
<td width="80" valign="top">18.1</td>
<td width="80" valign="top">8.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="113" valign="top">Tim Raines</td>
<td width="72" valign="top">30.4%</td>
<td width="80" valign="top">21.4</td>
<td width="80" valign="top">12.7</td>
<td width="80" valign="top">6.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="113" valign="top">Mark McGwire</td>
<td width="72" valign="top">23.7%</td>
<td width="80" valign="top">25.3</td>
<td width="80" valign="top">16</td>
<td width="80" valign="top">7.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="113" valign="top">Alan Trammell</td>
<td width="72" valign="top">22.4%</td>
<td width="80" valign="top">26.1</td>
<td width="80" valign="top">16.9</td>
<td width="80" valign="top">9.4</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>Oh wait, make that nine. You may have noticed the guy that doesn&#8217;t belong. At all. That would be Jack Morris. This is the voting results from this year with Lee Smith taken out, because there&#8217;s no point in even adding him to the chart. As you can see, Dawson does not deserve to be on top &#8212; and Bert Blyleven should be a no-fucking-brainer. I thinkÂ  another interesting part of the table is Raines being the second-worst when you use 5 WAR as the barrier (and third-worst with the other two). That ties in well with why he&#8217;s been slow in getting support for induction. Trammell was just unfortunate to play shortstop just before the recent influx of heavy-hitting shortstops. His hitting numbers don&#8217;t look impressive, and he wasn&#8217;t Ozzie Smith in the field. Hall of Fame voters don&#8217;t apply position adjustments, apparently.</p>
<p>As always, I must thank Sean Smith at <a href="http://www.baseballprojection.com/">BaseballProjection.com</a> for his historical WAR database. I should probably donate at this point.</p>
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